Czech political deadlock: Senate steps in (and resolves nothing)

The Czech Senate has stepped into the political crisis passing a constitutional law allowing the President to dissolve parliament if a constitutional majority (120+ deputies) vote for it in the lower house of parliament (LN 9 August).

The Civic Democrats and Greens support early elections, anticipating electoral gains. A poll by Factum Invenio (LN 7 August) - confirmed by a more recent poll - suggests that the Civic Democrats would poll 41 per cent, suggesting as I thought that some voters see Social Democrats tactics as obstructive. Other parties are on similar if slightly lower scores, although the Social Democrats fell back to 30 per cent. There is a marginal of error of +/- 2 per, but that would equate to a centre-right/Green majority or even a narrow Civic Democrat/Christian Democrat majority.

The Christian Democrats, Communists and Social Democrats are not keen on early elections, as they stand to lose support and not gain anything politically - so there is little prospect of the Senate’s law being approved by the lower house by the requisite constitutional majority (120+ votes). More deadlock…. We will have to wait and see what Klaus’s plan for resolving the situation is - details not specified, but it involves party leaders meeting under presidential auspices in ‘little circles’ and I dare might involve giving something to the Social Democrats, so that they would be inclined to help re-elect him President in 2007.

The mood in ODS reportedly is, however, for early elections, although given the difficulties of dissolving parliament and the question of electoral reform (currently out of the spotlight, but tricky and time consuming to enact) some kind of ODS-led caretaker government seems most likely..